The June CPI Just Killed the July Rate Hike Talk. Your HYSA Rate Isn't Moving.

Your high-yield savings rate isn’t dropping this month. Your credit card APR isn’t dropping either. And your mortgage rate is stuck near 6.4%. The June inflation number that landed yesterday gave the Fed the cover it needed to sit on its hands at the July 28-29 meeting.

Translation: nothing you pay and nothing you earn is moving in the next two weeks. If you’ve been waiting on a rate move to act, stop waiting.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped the June CPI on Tuesday, July 14. Headline inflation fell 0.4% for the month, the biggest one-month drop since April 2020. The annual rate came in at 3.5%, down from 4.2% in May. Consensus called for a 0.2% monthly drop and a 3.8% annual read. Both numbers beat the forecast.

Here’s what pulled it down. Energy fell 5.7% in June, its largest monthly drop since 2020. Gasoline dropped 9.7% after the Iran ceasefire drained the war premium out of oil prices. Take energy out and inflation was flat for the month, with core sitting at 2.6% year over year.

The Fed noticed. The CME FedWatch tool now puts the odds of a July 28-29 hold at 85.6%. That’s about as close to a lock as futures markets get two weeks out. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the Senate Banking Committee today. He’s not going to say anything that walks back the market’s read.

Whatever rate you’re carrying is your rate for the rest of July and probably deep into August.

If your cash sits in a checking account paying the 0.38% national average, the top high-yield savings accounts are still paying up to 4.50%. That’s a 400-basis-point gap on money you can move in a phone call. On $10,000 of savings, that’s about $410 a year you’re giving your bank for nothing. Real money.

If you were waiting on a refi window to open, the June cool-down isn’t that window. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, not the fed funds rate, and the 10-year barely moved. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average is still near 6.4%.

Move your cash this week if it’s not already earning. Every major online bank does a same-day transfer. Compare the top HYSA rates on our savings hub and pick one.

If you carry a credit card balance, the CPI print doesn’t change your APR. Only your issuer does. Call and ask for a rate reduction. If you have 12 months of on-time payments, you have leverage.

If you might refinance, run the math on our mortgage calculator at today’s 6.4%. If the payment savings pay back closing costs in under 30 months and you plan to stay in the house, lock. If not, wait. The next FOMC meeting after July is September 16-17.

One caveat on the June number. The energy drop is a one-off. Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire in mid-June and oil pulled back sharply. Gasoline isn’t going to fall another 9.7% in July. Watch shelter and services next month. Both are stickier and both are what the Fed cares about. If those firm up, September gets more interesting than July.

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