Your Mortgage Rate Didn't Move When the Fed Held. It Won't Move Wednesday Either.

Update, September 13, 2026: This article has been corrected and brought current. An earlier version gave the federal funds target range as 5.25 to 5.50 percent and put the 30-year mortgage spread over the 10-year Treasury at about 2.75 points. Both were wrong. The range has been 3.50 to 3.75 percent since December 11, 2025, and the spread is currently about 1.81 points. The old rate scenario table has been replaced with figures fetched this week. The Fed meets again on September 15 and 16.

If you are waiting for the Fed to “lower mortgage rates,” Wednesday is not going to do it for you. The funds rate and your mortgage rate aren’t the same number, and they don’t move on the same signal.

Where the Fed actually is

The federal funds target range is 3.50 to 3.75 percent. It has sat there since December 11, 2025, after three quarter-point cuts that autumn.

The Committee held it again on July 29, 2026. The dissent went the other way from the one most people assume. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan all voted against the hold because they wanted to raise the range by a quarter point.

Read that again. In July, the argument inside the room was for a hike.

The Committee meets September 15 and 16 and publishes fresh projections Wednesday afternoon.

Why the Fed and your mortgage rate are not the same thing

The funds rate is an overnight lending rate between banks. When it moves, it moves what is pegged to prime: home equity lines, credit cards, and adjustable-rate mortgages once the fixed period ends. Prime sat at 6.75 percent on September 10.

The 30-year fixed doesn’t work that way. It tracks the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread for credit and prepayment risk. On September 10 the 10-year was 4.95 percent and Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.76 percent. That is a spread of about 1.81 points.

Translation: when you read “Fed cuts,” look at the 10-year, not the headline.

The 10-year is not waiting for Wednesday. It already prices what traders think the Fed will do, so by decision day the mortgage market has usually finished reacting.

What the numbers did this week

Freddie Mac’s September 10 survey had the 30-year fixed at 6.76 percent, up 5 basis points on the week and up from 6.35 percent a year ago. The 15-year was 6.09 percent, also up 5 basis points, against 5.50 percent a year ago.

So rates rose in the week before a meeting where plenty of people expect a cut. That isn’t a contradiction. That’s a market that already did its guessing.

What to do about it

If you are under contract with a closing inside 45 days, lock. Some lenders sell a float-down for an eighth to a quarter of a point, which captures a better rate if one shows up before you close.

If you’re 60 to 90 days out, you can afford to watch one more inflation print and one more jobs report. Set a rate alert with your lender and pick your lock number in advance, so you’re deciding on arithmetic instead of nerves. Run the payment through our mortgage calculator first, and see what the lenders we rank are quoting.

If you’re refinancing, do the break-even. On a $350,000 loan at today’s level, a quarter point off saves about $58 a month. Against $2,000 in closing costs that pays back in about 35 months. Against $5,000, more than seven years. If you locked at 3 percent in 2021, there is still no case. If you locked in the mid-7s in late 2023, run it.

The discount points question

One point costs 1 percent of the loan and, as a rule of thumb, buys the rate down about a quarter point. On a $400,000 loan that is $4,000 up front to save roughly $66 a month. Break-even lands near five years. Worth it if you’re staying seven. Not if you might move or refinance inside three.

Watch the 10-year, not the FOMC calendar. Pick your number now. Then stop refreshing the news.

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